 s all-time profit graph on Manifold Markets is positive at any time on or before December 31, 2023. Otherwise resolves NO.

In the unlikely event it's so close it's uncertain whether it occurred or not (i.e., different APIs give different numbers, some of which are YES and some are NO), then it resolves 50%.

There are mechanisms to manipulate profit graphs (e.g., buying YES shares at 1% on a fake market up through 99% and closing a market). Rather than itemize every possible scenario, any specific market can be disputed. In case of a dispute, a poll will be created asking "Is X market intended to manipulate Mira's profit graph?". If the poll rules it is manipulative, Mira's profit on market X will be disgorged from the profit graph.

If the profit graph temporarily shows positive due to a bug, that doesn't count. It does count if Mira genuinely had that profit for a short time and then lost the money soon after.

Borrowed money from others doesn't directly influence the profit graph, so is not considered here. Only profits from markets do, and those are covered by the poll mechanism.

Profit is "all-time profit"(i.e. the number that is currently -M130,645) not profit limited to the year 2023.

Will @Mira have a positive profit? (2023)

 → Will @Mira have a positive all-time profit? (2023)