Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the United States and Iran formally sign a new nuclear agreement. The agreement must be publicly announced and verifiable through reputable news sources such as Reuters or The New York Times. If no such agreement is signed by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

In 2018, the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), leading to increased tensions and Iran advancing its nuclear program. In early 2025, the U.S. and Iran initiated negotiations for a new nuclear deal. By April 2025, both parties held "constructive" talks and planned further meetings. (cnn.com) In May 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that reviving the 2015 JCPOA no longer served Iran's interests, expressing readiness for a new agreement. (english.almayadeen.net) As of June 2025, negotiations are ongoing, with both sides expressing cautious optimism.

Considerations

• Regional Dynamics: The Middle East's geopolitical landscape, including Israel's security concerns and actions, may influence the negotiation process.

• International Relations: The positions of other global powers, such as Russia and China, could impact the negotiations' progress and outcome.

• Domestic Politics: Internal political pressures within both the U.S. and Iran may affect their respective negotiation stances and willingness to compromise.