Resolution Criteria

The conflict will be considered ended when the US and Iran cease active military operations and hostilities. This includes:

• No new military strikes by either the US, Israel, or Iran for a continuous 7-day period

• This includes attempted kinetic operations, even if they fail.

• This does not include covert operations or cyber warfare.

Resolution will be determined by monitoring official statements from the US State Department, Iranian government sources, and international news outlets covering military operations in the region.

Background

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran in an operation codenamed "Operation Epic Fury," targeting key military facilities and officials. The operation resulted in the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The strikes followed Trump's accusations that Iran was reviving nuclear weapons development and had developed advanced missile capabilities.

Just before the strikes, Oman's Foreign Minister reported a "breakthrough" in nuclear negotiations, with Iran agreeing to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full IAEA verification, saying peace was "within reach". Iran has since launched retaliatory attacks on US military bases, Israel, and targets across the region, damaging air hubs and disrupting oil shipments.

Considerations

For Tehran, this conflict is existential and clearly about regime survival, and is unlikely to end quickly. Analysts identify two likely outcomes: the conflict escalates into asymmetric warfare with Iran, or after tit-for-tat strikes, it de-escalates as it has done in the past. The theocracy will likely survive the bombing—battered and bruised, but standing.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing clarification: The market will resolve to the date when the conflict actually paused (i.e., when the 7-day period of no military strikes begins), not the date when the resolution is confirmed. The resolution will be confirmed 7 days after the pause begins to verify the criteria has been met.

• Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates the 7-day no-strike timer has started, based on the linked FT article. The market will resolve to the date when this pause began, once the 7-day period is confirmed.

• Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Third-party conflicts (e.g., Israel-Hezbollah in Lebanon) do not extend or reset the 7-day no-strike timer. The ceasefire is considered maintained as long as Iran, Gulf States, US, and Israel are not in direct conflict with each other, even if other regional conflicts continue.