Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the United States and Iran jointly announce a formal, written agreement by March 20, 2026. The agreement must be publicly announced by official representatives of both governments. The announcement should be made through official government channels (e.g., White House statement, State Department press release, Iranian Foreign Ministry statement, or equivalent official sources). The agreement's scope is not restricted—it may address nuclear issues, sanctions, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, or any combination thereof.

Background

The US and Iran concluded indirect talks in Oman on February 6, 2026, marking the first round of negotiations between the two sides since the US and Israel struck Iran last summer. Trump's special envoy aims to finalize the deal within 60 days. The recent negotiations hinge on three main demands: ending Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, curtailing its ballistic programme and cutting its support for regional proxies. Iran has stated that nuclear enrichment is its "inalienable right and must continue" and that its missile programme is non-negotiable because it relates to a "defence issue."

Considerations

When negotiators concluded talks in Muscat on February 6, neither side signalled any shift from its opening position, continuation is not progress, and the distance between what happened in Muscat and what a deal requires remains vast. Most experts assess that the Trump team would have difficulty advertising as a diplomatic success any agreement that did not include zero enrichment. Trump set a two-month deadline for Iran to reach an agreement in April 2025, and after the deadline passed without an agreement, Israel attacked Iran.

This description was generated by AI.