This market resolves YES if, on November 30, 2026, China's suspension of its October 9, 2025 export-control measures is still in effect. That suspension currently runs under MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 70 of 2025, and an extension or successor suspension also counts. It resolves NO if any of the suspended measures has taken effect by that date: MOFCOM/GAC Announcements No. 55-58 and MOFCOM Announcements No. 61-62 of 2025. Those measures cover holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium, rare-earth equipment and technology, the 0.1% extraterritorial rule, lithium-battery and graphite anode items, and superhard materials.

China's separate April 2025 licensing regime for seven medium and heavy rare earths staying in force does not affect this market.

Background: Announcement No. 70 (November 7, 2025) suspended these measures until November 10, 2026, following the Busan Trump-Xi meeting.

Sources: MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, Reuters and Bloomberg coverage.