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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of tantalum on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ7
Dec 31
30%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement scoped exactly to tantalum metal, tantalum powder, tantalum pentoxide, or potassium tantalum fluoride sold as primary material. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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