This market resolves YES if, on December 31, 2026, an official Chinese measure is in effect that suspends or removes the export licensing requirement of MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 for all seven covered elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. The measure may apply to all destinations or to exports to the United States. It resolves NO otherwise.
The following do not count: granting individual or general licences under the regime (general licences began in December 2025), faster approvals, or a suspension covering only some of the seven elements.
Background: Announcement No. 18 (April 4, 2025) placed these elements under dual-use export licensing. The November 2025 Busan truce suspended China's later October 2025 controls but left this regime in place.
Sources: MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, Reuters and Bloomberg coverage.
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