This market resolves YES if China's MOFCOM export license requirement for samarium (Sm), samarium oxide (Sm2O3), and samarium alloys is actively enforced on June 30, 2027 — i.e., exporters must obtain an export license under MOFCOM Decree No. 18 or equivalent order.

YES if: Export licenses are required for samarium as of June 30, 2027 NO if: Controls are suspended or permanently rescinded on June 30, 2027

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. MOFCOM official gazette (mofcom.gov.cn) — export control announcements

2. China Ministry of Commerce policy announcements

3. Reuters / Bloomberg reporting on China rare earth export policy

4. S&P Global / Fastmarkets commentary on China REE export status