This market resolves YES if, between July 16, 2026 and March 31, 2027, China announces new export controls (prohibition, licensing, or restriction) on lithium supply-chain materials, equipment, or technologies not already covered by measures announced on or before July 16, 2026, otherwise NO.

YES if: a MOFCOM or GACC announcement, export-control technology catalogue amendment, dual-use list addition, or equivalent instrument newly covers lithium-chain items. NO if: no such new measure is announced in that window. Enforcement of existing measures does not count.

Resolution sources (priority order):

1. MOFCOM announcements (mofcom.gov.cn)

2. Reuters / Bloomberg reporting