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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of cobalt battery precursors on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ20
Dec 31
35%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering battery cathode precursor materials containing cobalt that are described by Announcement 58/2025. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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