Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MP Materials ceases all sales to Shenghe Resources by December 31, 2025. "Ceases all sales" is defined as MP Materials not shipping any rare earth products to Shenghe Resources for processing or resale. Verification will be based on official statements from MP Materials, Shenghe Resources, or credible news reports. If no such cessation occurs by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

MP Materials operates the only rare earths mine in the United States and has historically sold a significant portion of its rare earth concentrate to Shenghe Resources, a Chinese company. In April 2025, MP Materials halted shipments to China due to increased tariffs imposed by Beijing, which made such exports economically unfeasible. (reuters.com) Despite this suspension, the existing offtake agreement between MP Materials and Shenghe Resources remains valid, and Shenghe has indicated that the halt will not significantly impact its operations. (news.metal.com)

Considerations

While the current suspension of shipments is attributed to tariff-related economic factors, the formal offtake agreement between MP Materials and Shenghe Resources is still in place. The future of this agreement may be influenced by geopolitical developments, trade policies, and strategic decisions by both companies. Traders should monitor official communications from both companies and relevant news sources for updates on the status of their commercial relationship.