Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined lead smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.

This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:

• An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.

• Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.

YES examples:

• Official policy directive setting a fixed cap (e.g., "refined lead smelting capacity shall not exceed 6 million tonnes").

• Inclusion of such a cap in the finalized 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) documents.

• Government-mandated production ceiling tied to environmental/energy goals.

NO examples (does not qualify):

• Voluntary smelter agreements (e.g., cuts in utilization or processing fees).

• Tightened project approvals, oversight, or halts on specific expansions (e.g., suspending planned capacity additions).

• General growth targets (e.g., 1.5% annual non-ferrous output growth) without a hard numerical ceiling.

• Regional/provincial limits without a national cap.

Resolution sources (in order of priority):

1. Official government websites/announcements (NDRC, MIIT, State Council).

2. State media (Xinhua, People's Daily) reporting official policy.

3. Authoritative industry reports confirming the policy (e.g., China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association).If ambiguous, the market creator/resolver will favor the most authoritative source; community discussion on Manifold is encouraged for edge cases.

Estimated Probability (as of late December 2025): 50%

Reasoning for the estimate:

• Supporting factors: CNMIA explicitly recommended an aluminum-style cap for lead (along with copper and zinc) in October/November 2025 to combat overcapacity and low profits, with a proposed timeline for policy development in Q4 2025-Q1 2026 and potential restrictions in H1 2026. The 15th Five-Year Plan (finalized likely in Q1 2026) could incorporate this, especially amid broader non-ferrous growth curbs (e.g., 1.5% annual targets for 2025-2026).

• Counter factors: Recent NDRC announcements (Dec 26, 2025) tightened oversight specifically for copper and alumina under the upcoming FYP, but omitted lead—suggesting it may not escalate to a hard cap as quickly. Voluntary measures or general targets might suffice short-term without a binding numerical ceiling.