Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources:

• A public statement from a major HBM supplier (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) in an earnings call transcript or press release indicating HBM3e supply meets or exceeds demand

• A public report from a research organization (Epoch AI, CSET, Brookings, government statistical agency) indicating HBM3e shortage has cleared

• TrendForce or similar publicly published market-summary data (free-tier reports only — NOT paywalled subscription content) indicating supply ≥ demand

Source of truth: publicly accessible earnings call transcripts (SEC EDGAR / company IR pages), public press releases, free-tier industry reports.

Tie-breaker rule: if there are conflicting public statements from different suppliers, the market resolves based on the predominance of public evidence as of 2026-12-31. If genuinely ambiguous, market resolves N/A (or 50%).

Resolution date: 2026-12-31.

About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

Creator-is-not-trader. The creator of this market does not place trades on it. Probabilities reflect community trading.

Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.