This market resolves YES if, by September 30, 2026, all Kachin State border crossings have been closed to rare earth trade for 30+ consecutive days due to a breakdown in the KIA-China commercial relationship.
YES if by September 30, 2026:
All Kachin border crossings closed to RE trade for 30+ consecutive days
Closure caused by KIA-China diplomatic/commercial breakdown (not weather/logistics)
NO if:
No 30+ day consecutive halt has occurred by September 30, 2026
Any closures were shorter than 30 days or caused by non-commercial factors
Resolution sources (priority order):
Myanmar Now border crossing reporting (myanmar-now.org)
The Irrawaddy China-Myanmar watch (irrawaddy.com)
Chinese customs/trade media
BNI Online (bnionline.net)
KIA/KIO official statements
1,000