#### Resolution Criteria

China's GB38031-2025 standard becomes mandatory on July 1, 2026 for new vehicles. This market resolves YES if the regulation requiring batteries to prevent fire and explosion even after internal thermal runaway occurs remains in effect and is enforced as scheduled. Resolution will be determined by checking official announcements from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and regulatory compliance documentation. The market resolves NO if the standard is delayed, significantly weakened, or repealed before July 1, 2026.

Background

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced new mandatory national safety standards for electric vehicle batteries that will take effect on July 1, 2026, representing the world's first standard requiring batteries to prevent fire and explosion even after internal thermal runaway occurs. Leading manufacturers such as CATL claim to already possess the necessary technology—CATL offers a "No Thermal Propagation (NP)" solution. Industry experts believe the tougher requirements will significantly enhance consumer safety, but may also lead to consolidation within the battery sector.

Considerations

Manufacturers have just over a year to comply with the more stringent regulations. Existing vehicles must provide proof of compliance by July 1, 2027, creating a transition period. The standard applies specifically to traction batteries for electric vehicles and does not cover auxiliary or starter batteries.