Obviously subjective.
Any significant restrictions on 2026 voting (e.g., all voting must be in person) will result in this being resolved NO.
Update 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if:
Representatives-elect are not sworn in to Congress
An entire state delegation is considered invalid
Any situation similar to the Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva case occurs
1,000People are also trading
Going to post relevant articles here:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/04/trump-election-rules-changes/682394/
@MichaeldelaMaza The case of Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva suggests that this will be resolved NO. If anything like this happens, I will resolve this bet as NO. If peeps are not sworn in or an entire delegation is considered invalid, this will resolved NO. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/who-is-adelita-grijalva-and-why-hasnt-she-been-sworn-in-to-congress-yet