This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.
This market resolves as NO in the following scenarios
-The 2028 election is not conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate doing so though cheating or changing the rules on behalf of their party.
-The 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, but the transition of power is disrupted in a way that leads to the losing candidate or their party being in power past January 20, 2029.
-The 2028 election is cancelled or not conducted, allowing a single candidate to remain in power indefintely past the end of their term.
1,000
3.00@tfae Gerrymandering has no direct impact on presidential elections. Standard voter suppression maneuvers don’t count for this.