As indicated by the Organization of American States.
Resolves YES if the OAS finds the election is generally free and fair.
Resolves NO if the OAS finds the election to be not free or not fair.
If OAS does not comment, I will use my judgement to resolve the market based on another observer, likely considering this list of high-quality election monitoring organizations.
I'll wait up to two years from the date of the election to get time for comment from OAS. If the OAS issues a preliminary report with a clear finding, that will be sufficient to resolve the question. Brazil's election schedule is set down in the constitution, so any postponement of the election would be extraordinary. If elections are postponed by more than 6 months, this market will resolve NO, otherwise the question will continue to resolve as set down above. This market will resolve based on a judgement about both the congressional and presidential elections--both must be free and fair as described above for the market to resolve positively.
I will not trade this market.
There hasn't ever been solid evidence of fraud in Brazil's election afaik, and if there was it would be more sophisticated than Venezuela's – which wasn't condemned this year
@jBosc I'm not quite sure what the specific trigger should be, but I'll be willing to accept something less than a formal resolution. For instance, this OAS Office of the Secretary General was very strongly worded. Generally speaking I'll be looking for what their reports or preliminary say. And something like "probably this election was unfair and manipulated in substantial way beyond minor irregularities" would suffice.
@B i.e., the "preliminary report" of the sort that has been released and has criticizedVenezuela's latest election would be more than enough to resolve this market negative.