- Any terrorist attack occurring in Russia in 2024 that results in at least 100 deaths at one place.
- The Russian government officially attributing the attack to Ukraine.
Exclusions:
- Terrorist attacks with less than 100 fatalities.
- Incidents where Russia does not explicitly blame Ukraine for the attack.
- Attacks occurring outside before 1 May 2024
- In the event of a prepared but exposed false flag attack perpetrated by Russian police, security or associated forces, therefore preventing Russia from publicly blaming Ukraine, the resolution will be marked as N/A.
Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:
EOY 2025?
EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will negotiations between Ukraine and Russia start this year and why? (your answers)
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-negotiations-between-ukraine-a
If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?
pro-Russian ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
pro-Ukraine ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-kharkiv-or-zaporizhia-or-khers
Will Russia implement a major nationwide forced military mobilization for the Ukraine war before EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-russia-implement-a-major-natio
Will there be mass protests in Ukraine analogous to the Maidan protests by December 31, 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-there-be-mass-protests-in-ukra
When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/when-will-martial-law-be-lifted-in
When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/when-will-conscripted-ukrainians-be