Will there be another terrorist attack that Russia blames on Ukraine in 2024, causing at least 100 deaths?
16
770
Dec 31
20%
chance

- Any terrorist attack occurring in Russia in 2024 that results in at least 100 deaths at one place.

- The Russian government officially attributing the attack to Ukraine.

Exclusions:

- Terrorist attacks with less than 100 fatalities.

- Incidents where Russia does not explicitly blame Ukraine for the attack.

- Attacks occurring outside before 1 May 2024

- In the event of a prepared but exposed false flag attack perpetrated by Russian police, security or associated forces, therefore preventing Russia from publicly blaming Ukraine, the resolution will be marked as N/A.

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Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

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EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Russian ceasefire?

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pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

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https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

Will Kharkiv or Zaporizhia or Kherson fall before EOY 2024?
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