
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2026)
3
Ṁ90Ṁ32resolved Dec 31
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15551/2026/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
China escalates to U.S.-specific ban on tungsten products by Mar 31, 2026?
13% chance
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2032)
61% chance
Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on April 1, 2026?
84% chance
Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?
11% chance
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?
22% chance
Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?
36% chance
Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on May 1, 2026?
90% chance
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
53% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
37% chance
Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?
77% chance