Will Russia invade Finland or Sweden before they join NATO?

424

Ṁ20K

Ṁ666

resolved Mar 7

Resolved

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Resolves Yes if Russia invades Finland or Sweden with ground troops. Resolves No if Finland and Sweden are both members of NATO. Small print: I will not trade in this market. If neither condition occurs at market close I may resolve N/A or extend the close date.

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12 Comments

35 Holders

249 Trades

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@MartinRandall can resolve no

Still waiting on Sweden

Looking closer now

bought Ṁ43 of NO

This can resolve NO as Finland joined NATO

@firstuserhere the "or" in market question makes me think this.

Do you mean it for both Sweden and Finland?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere check the market description, it doesn't resolve no until both join NATO, which definitely makes sense to me

@jack gotcha

Well this is scarily high

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@MartinRandall Most likely target if this does happen would be the Aland islands; in a strategic position, but demilitarized (and hence defenceless) due to a treaty Finland signed with the Soviet Union. It'd be a serious provocation, but very much the same kind of operation Russia pulled with Crimea; pick out a small elite force, get in quickly, dig in, and challenge the world to do something about it. Finland would have trouble responding to such an attack on their own, and being in the middle of a territorial dispute would complicate their NATO accession, so it's a not-insane strategy. Given recent Russian maneuvers in the Baltic, it's quite possible they're considering this.