When will Russia have military encounter with Finland?
17
150αΉ€1006
2031
4%
By 2026
5%
By 2027
10%
By 2028
16%
By 2029
27%
By 2030
70%
Not before 2030

The resolution trigger includes but is not limited to:

  1. Rocket/drone/artillery strike.

  2. Military/spy technology entering the airspace/crossing the border (helicopters, spydrones, robots, etc.).

  3. Sabotage at military facility / weapon storage/production site.

  4. Sabotage at bunkers infrustructure.

  5. Sabotage of railroads.

  6. Invasion / false flag operations.

The resolution trigger does not include:

  1. Stealing military documents.

  2. Arresting citizens of the other country.

  3. Sabotage of civilian infrastructure (electricity, water, internet, etc.).

This market is "ruled by the spirit, not by the letter". Questions to the market creator are allowed.

In case the market creator is not reachable and the events are in the grey zone, mods are advised to incline resolving NO.

Resolution of options is up to 2 months delay.

"By" is not inclusive.

  • Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A drone bought in Finland (not crossing the border from Russia) will resolve the market to Yes if it is proven to be spying in the benefit of Russia.

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What about drones bought here in Finland (not crossing the border)?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen if proven to spy in the benefit of Russia then resolves Yes.

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