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MANIFOLD
Russian attacks or invades Finland by mid 2029
18
Ṁ1kṀ3.6k
2029
27%
chance
18

Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.

Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.

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