Anyone who announces they will not seek reelection to the senate or flips to independent will resolve N/A. If any of them flip to be Republicans, this resolves based on their Republican primary. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) have announced they will not seek reelection. Angus King (I-ME) is an independent, and thus does not participate in primaries.
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NOTE: this market is regarding shutdown that democrats prevented in March 2025 by kicking the can down the road to October, NOT the subsequent September-to-November shutdown. The senators that ended that shutdown are:
Jeanne Shaheen (Retiring)
Dick Durbin (Retiring)
Maggie Hassan (2028)
John Fetterman (2028)
Catherine Cortez Masto (2028)
Tim Kaine (2030)
Jacky Rosen (2030)
Angus King (2030)
This mostly overlaps, but 3 YEAs from March were NOs this time (Schumer, Gillibrand, Peters) and two NOs from March were YEAs this time (Kaine and Rosen).
@JackP They'd N/A, same as them dropping out, since independent candidates don't have primaries
@JussiVilleHeiskanen If he flips parties and runs as a Republican, he'd still have to run in the primary, so this would resolve based on that primary