Only House Democrats who lose primary challenges to Non Incumbents will count. 2 incumbents against each other will not count. Last cycle Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman lost primary challenges. Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The primary between Christian Menefee and Al Green in TX-18 will not count as anyone losing a primary challenge, as they are both incumbents.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 5+, followed by 3-4 and 2 are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Jul 4, 2026).

How many House Democrats will lose a primary challenge in 2026?

MANIFOLD

How many House Democrats will lose a primary challenge in 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ6.9k

Nov 2

ALL

0.1%

0-1

0.1%

11%

3-4

89%

Only House Democrats who lose primary challenges to Non Incumbents will count. 2 incumbents against each other will not count.

Last cycle Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman lost primary challenges.

Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The primary between Christian Menefee and Al Green in TX-18 will not count as anyone losing a primary challenge, as they are both incumbents.

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2024 US Presidential Election

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The primary between Christian Menefee and Al green in tx 18 will not count as anyone losing a primary challenge if one of them wins, as they are both incumbents.