How many House Democrats will lose a primary challenge in 2026?
8
Ṁ1kṀ819Nov 2
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
5%
0-1
11%
2
19%
3-4
65%
5+
Only House Democrats who lose primary challenges to Non Incumbents will count. 2 incumbents against each other will not count.
Last cycle Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman lost primary challenges.
Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The primary between Christian Menefee and Al Green in TX-18 will not count as anyone losing a primary challenge, as they are both incumbents.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will any Senate Democrat lose a primary in 2026?
19% chance
Which incumbent U.S. representatives will lose their primaries?
How many House seats will the Democrats win in 2026?
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
91% chance
Will any incumbent U.S. Senator lose renomination in the 2026 US senate primaries?
93% chance
Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
63% chance
How many seats will Democrats win in Virginia in the national 2026 House elections?
How many incumbent U.S. Representatives will lose renomination in the 2026 election cycle?
18
How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?
Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?