If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver. If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats. If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won. Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
Feel free to add more states you think could be it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections#Closest_races
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The example in the description has been corrected - in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats, not Nebraska.
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a senator (like Osborn) caucuses with neither Democrats nor Republicans, they will not count toward Democrats' 51st seat for the purposes of determining the tipping point state.
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@ZaneMiller The description I wrote says it has to give Democrats their 51st seat, so it seems fair to keep that as the resolution. So I wouldn't count it towards that.
@NathanScott add Ohio? I think most of the Other probability mass is Ohio (maybe a little bit is Florida as well)
@SaviorofPlant never mind I thought this market was set to only creator can add answers, for some reason
For clarity, by the definition you're using (51st seat tipping point), Montana would have been the tipping point state this year, not Nebraska. Republican won seats in order of how close they are is PA (R+0.22), OH (R+4), NE (R+6.7), MT (R+7.1) and Democrats won only 47 seats so they'd need to flip 4.