If Ali Khamenei is killed by EOY2025, will Israel claim credit within 3 months? https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/if-ali-khamenei-is-killed-by-eoy202?play=true

A U.S. official confirmed to me that over the weekend, Israel had an operational window to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but President Trump made it clear that he is against such a move. This was first reported by @steveholland1

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1934294153111785608

Ugh... if there was a liquidity provider on Manifold I would have been able to sell out of my position last month ;(

@bens this is why we need Jane Street

@bens @Dynd goddamit

@bens Whatever you do, don't pray for him to be spared 😂

@bens No crying in the casino!

@Dynd at least this market is a hedge against my preferences

Now that @SemioticRivalry put a YES limit order above me I feel much better 😂

The only thing that's giving me pause is polymarket is showing some signs of insider trading.

I don't understand at all how this would be in Israel's interest

@FergusArgyll What signs have you noticed?

@ChadCotty

1) It's just climbing and climbing without any news

2) Play around with https://polymarketanalytics.com/markets/16105 , There's a couple yes bettors who basically only made money on israel strikes iran.

None of this is conclusive but gives me jitters

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Polymarket Analytics

Analytics for the "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?" prediction market on Polymarket. Get insights to inform your trading decisions.

@FergusArgyll That's very unlikely to be insider trading. There are plenty of directional bettors on polymarket, and insiders would profit way more by trading oil. The evidence of insider trading in prediction markets is quite limited

@PlainBG if Domer thinks it's real, there's at least something to the theory...

https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1933547513790767550

30%?!

I have some big NO orders up at 73, 75, and 77% for any takers, I would like to exit my position to risk-minimize after the recent... pope's passing. @SemioticRivalry perhaps?

@bens he's in pretty bad shape, not really convinced of 75% here

@SemioticRivalry hmm, well I’ll leave them up and when time decay makes it worth your while feel free to grab them

@Primer No order up at current price. Want to decrease my position here as it is too large to get loans.

@Primer what does this mean “too large to get loans”?

@bens As far as I know, Manifold changed the way loans work a few weeks ago. You only get loans for invested Mana up to a maximum of 5% (?) of your total balance (?) per market.

So if have 1000 Mana and invest in 20 markets, 50 Mana each, you get loans for 1000 Mana. If you put the same 1000 Mana in two markets, 500 Mana each, you get loans for 100 Mana (5% of your 1000 Mana is 50 Mana, so you get loans for a maximum of 50 Mana in each of your two markets).

Sorry, I don't know where Manifold puts these rules, you can probably/hopefully find better and correct information in a FAQ or something.

@bens Sorry again, you probably knew all this, so: I got more than 5% of my net worth invested here, which means that I don't get back loans for parts of this investment, thus I'm trying to decrease my position.

@Primer I actually didn’t know this!

@Primer do you happen to know where this is documented, btw?

@bens Sorry, but no. I'd put

• 30% probability on having read about it in the Yud UFO market

• 50% on "some other market or poll"

• 10% on "outside of Manifold"

• 8% on "It's just something I misunderstood"

• 2% on unknown unknowns