Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through December 31st, 2025?
44
1kṀ60k
Dec 31
65%
chance

The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Iran, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 65% order

@Primer No order up at current price. Want to decrease my position here as it is too large to get loans.

@Primer what does this mean “too large to get loans”?

@bens As far as I know, Manifold changed the way loans work a few weeks ago. You only get loans for invested Mana up to a maximum of 5% (?) of your total balance (?) per market.

So if have 1000 Mana and invest in 20 markets, 50 Mana each, you get loans for 1000 Mana. If you put the same 1000 Mana in two markets, 500 Mana each, you get loans for 100 Mana (5% of your 1000 Mana is 50 Mana, so you get loans for a maximum of 50 Mana in each of your two markets).

Sorry, I don't know where Manifold puts these rules, you can probably/hopefully find better and correct information in a FAQ or something.

@bens Sorry again, you probably knew all this, so: I got more than 5% of my net worth invested here, which means that I don't get back loans for parts of this investment, thus I'm trying to decrease my position.

I don't have any mana to bet yes, but the social security actuarial table gives an 85 year old male only 10.5% chance of dying within the next year.

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