85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is rumoured to be ill. If he should die or step down, who will end up replacing him? Have added five options, including a “no one = regime change” option that covers a scenario of regime collapse after his death / resignation.
Resolving yes for an option will happen when the Assembly of Experts announces a new leader, and/or this person acknowledges and accepts the title, and/or there is a clear formal ceremony or swearing in event, and/or someone emerges and is clearly referred to as the Supreme Leader by other senior clerics and significant political figures.
If the regime collapses and no supreme leader replaces Khamenei, then will resolve to that option.
If there is a power-sharing or ongoing interim rule situation, this option will resolve “yes” after 1 year of there being no new Supreme Leader.
Little Update:
28 Feb 2026: Now that Khamenei is dead. Am expecting this market to resolve soon.
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@traders subsequent market is up: https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/when-irans-new-supreme-leader-mojta