Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the following conditions:

• Ali Khamenei killed by EOY2025, Israel claims credit within 3 months: Resolves "Yes" if Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, is confirmed dead by December 31, 2025, and the Israeli government officially claims responsibility within three months of his death. Official claims must be made through statements from Israeli government officials or official press releases.

• Ali Khamenei killed by EOY2025, Israel does NOT claim credit within 3 months: Resolves "Yes" if Ali Khamenei is confirmed dead by December 31, 2025, and the Israeli government does not officially claim responsibility within three months of his death.

• Ali Khamenei NOT killed by EOY2025: Resolves "Yes" if Ali Khamenei remains alive as of December 31, 2025.

The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or official statements from the Israeli government.

Background (AI generated)

Ali Khamenei has been Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989 and has survived multiple assassination attempts, notably in 1981 and 1985. Israel has a history of targeted assassinations against figures it considers threats, including the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force. In June 2025, reports indicated that Israel had an opportunity to assassinate Khamenei but refrained due to U.S. opposition.

Considerations (AI generated)

Israel often does not publicly claim responsibility for assassinations, making official attribution challenging. Traders should consider the likelihood of Israel's public acknowledgment when making predictions.