Will Reza Pahlavi head a transitional government inside Iran before January 2026?
5
1.2kṀ907
2026
15%
chance

Background

  • Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, has recently presented a detailed “100‑day transition plan,” calling it Iran’s “Berlin Wall moment,” and has offered himself to lead a post-regime Iran.

  • At the Munich “Convergence Summit” (Feb 2025), several Iranian opposition factions reportedly selected Pahlavi as leader of a transitional government until free elections can be held.

Resolution Criteria

This resolves YES if all of the following occur by January 1, 2026:

  1. Leadership Appointment

    • Reza Pahlavi must be publicly announced or confirmed—for example, as prime minister, chairman, or transitional head—of a governing body operating inside Iran that wields executive authority over part or all of Iran's territory following the collapse or ousting of the current government of Iran.

  2. Domestic Authority

    • This body must exercise de facto control or authority over Iranian territory (e.g., governing ministries, issuing decrees, commanding security forces).

  3. Recognition

    • The transitional government must be acknowledged by at least one internal political faction within Iran (e.g., dissident military units, regional councils, or popular-organized bodies) or receive official recognition from a reputable foreign government (e.g., U.S., EU, UK, Canada, Japan) specifically as a governing authority inside Iran.

  4. Timing

    • Both the leadership appointment and recognition must occur by January  1, 2026.

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