
Conditional on Trump getting reelected in 2024, will he show signs of age-related mental decline at any time before Jan 6 2029.
I will try to use external sources. For example, if there is widespread media discussion about his age.
Clarifications:
1) If Trump is not reelected in 2024, this resolves N/A
2) If Trump is re-elected but does not end his second term (e.g. because he is impeached and removed from office), this resolves to whether there is significant discussion of age-related decline by when his term would have ended (Jan 6th 2029). If there is no discussion because he is out of the public eye by then, this will resolve No.
3) If he experiences mental decline as a result of a disease that is much more likely in old age (e.g. Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s), this will resolve Yes.
4) I will generally go by whether there is significant media arguments, with heavier weight on publications I consider to be more politically neutral (e.g. The Economist, WSJ, WaPo, NYT to a lesser extent), and much lower weight on publications that I consider more partisan (e.g. The Guardian, MSNBC, Fox, Vox, etc.).