Will a large number of people turn blue before 2035?
18
100Ṁ1735
2035
3%
chance

Resolves as YES if at last 100k people turn blue within the space of 100 days, while still being alive and otherwise healthy at the time when they become blue, before January 1st 2035.

This must have occurred either through a mechanism that did not exist before 2025, or through a mechanism that did exist but was very rare.

People painting themselves blue does not count. For this to resolve as YES, people's skin color must have a blue/bluish color that's visually remarkable. This change must occur over the surface area of at least 15% of their skin.

The people who turn blue must be alive and healthy for at least 24 hours after turning blue for this to resolve as YES. If the mechanism turning people blue also causes significant health issues later on, then this question still resolves YES provided that at the time people turn blue, the associated health symptoms are still limited.


Things that are excluded:

  • Respiratory issues (e.g., asthma attack, pneumonia, choking, COPD)

  • Cardiac issues (e.g., heart failure, congenital heart defects)

  • Exposure to extreme cold (causing poor circulation)

  • Poisoning (carbon monoxide, certain medications)

  • Methemoglobinemia (a condition where blood cannot carry oxygen effectively)

  • Tattoos

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