What will happen before 2050? (Mega market)

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Ṁ5288

2050

30%

A US president (other than FDR) has served three terms.

80%

Alcor still exists, and nobody in their freezers has been thawe.

25%

USA has a single-payer healthcare system.

32%

A billionaire successfully buys a country.

50%

Strutheo's Manifold approval market index remains at or above 75% for one month

29%

A US president gets elected with over 450 electoral votes.

31%

This market gets a Sweepstakes/other cash version.

82%

This market reaches 500k in total volume.

50%

The UN reaches 200 member states.

33%

3 US presidential candidates get at least 60 electoral votes each in a US presidential election.

35%

Malaria goes extinct

80%

30 different users add an answer to this market.

42%

Global extreme poverty below 1% of the population

59%

Global temperature > 1.5°C Paris Agreement

35%

the calendar is changed

72%

Ray Kurzweil dies

41%

YoY US inflation (CPI) reaches over 25%

26%

majority of human babies are delivered from artificial system, rather than via natural pregnancy

77%

This market reaches 100+ answers.

34%

A billionaire CEO successfully buys a country.

Feel free to add answers!

If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 5 mana/trader on your question (max 100M).

If you add a question yourself, comment and I'll tip you the unique trader bonuses that I get from it.

If a question can't be resolved objectively, it will be resolved according to a poll.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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15 Comments

22 Holders

152 Trades

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reposted

The new loan update will probably make markets like this more viable imo.

@GastonKessler Mana can't be donated at all now, so does that mean this resolves YES?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 tricky question but I guess that you're right because it only mentions the donation rate, thank you and sorry for the late resolve.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Quick precision, I'm noticing especially high expected total traders here. To clarify, I'm talking about the total individual traders ( those who appear on the market's list of info). Idk if you're simply being optimistic but I just wanted to be sure.

(Just joined, don't have enough mana to add answers)

Question suggestions:

Alcor still exists, and nobody in their freezers has been thawed
USA has a single-payer healthcare system in 2050
A US president (other than FDR) has served three terms

I assume malaria= extinct means outside the laboratory?

@PhilosophyBear @NathanHelmBurger

@PhilosophyBear If he doesn't give his own definition, I'll resolve it yes if and only if there hasn't been a single reported case of malaria for two years straight.

@PhilosophyBear yeah, I think that two years of zero cases in humans and scientists declaring that no recovery of parasite population is expected is a fair operationalization of 'extinct'. Controlled samples in a lab wouldn't count against this, same as with smallpox being counted as extinct but still existing in labs.

reposted

From now on, any question suggested won't provide a fixed tip, the tip will be 5 Mana/unique trader (maxed 100 mana)

reposted

If you don't want to add an answer because of the cost, suggest an answer in the comments and I'll tip you 10-50 mana if I think it's good + more if it does really well.

"An ASI trades on, adds an option to, or comments on this market"

" @GastonKessler goes to space"

"A billionaire CEO successfully buys a country"

"Elon Musk goes bald a second time"

bought Ṁ10 YES

Trying to turn this into a 2050 Mega market.

@GastonKessler this wont get 100+ or 250+ traders if you don't share it or make it more visible ... make it more visible, you can do it ... :)

I've reposted it to my... 7 followers, I hope that will get a few traders/creators . If you want to help growing this into a bigger market, feel free to add answers!

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