Will there be an Arctic Blue Ocean Event by 2030?
Basic
10
Ṁ9152030
10%
chance
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1W
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Per Wikipedia, a "Blue Ocean Event", is often defined as "having less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice"
Resolving according to Data Tools | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org) daily data
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Graph of estimates from the model in Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations - Stroeve - 2012 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library.
I added an up to date purple line using NSIDC data. I now think the chance of this happening is very low.
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