Will gray hair be mostly reversible before 2035?

1kṀ1128

2035

41%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if there is a reliable and widely used medical intervention that reverses hair graying associated with aging. The intervention must cause existing hair follicles growing gray hair to instead grow repigmented hair closely matching the person's original natural hair color.

If the intervention doesn't repigment all of a person's gray hair, then this market resolves YES only if the treatment is able to reduce the number of gray hairs by >50% in most people. If this statistic is difficult to determine, I'll use my best judgement.

Examples of hypothetical interventions include, but are not limited to, pills, topicals, injections, and stem cell implantation.

This market resolves YES even if the intervention is not specifically targeted at reversing gray hair (for example, a general anti-aging pill that also happens to reverse gray hair would still count).

Hair dyes don't count as a cure or medical intervention.

Medicine

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2035?

29% chance

Will I have hair loss by 2030?

63% chance

Will there be an FDA-approved age reversal treatment based on partial cell reprogramming by 2030?

32% chance

Genetic hair treatments before 2040

61% chance

Will male pattern baldness be curable via medication before 2035?

31% chance

Will scientists confirm the reversal of ageing in humans through genetic editing or other technologies by the end 2045?

66% chance

Will a large number of people turn blue before 2035?

3% chance

Will there be a lab-grown hair transplant by 2030?

70% chance

Will brain death be reversible by 2050?

24% chance

Will an effective hair restoration medication be commercially available before 2030?

Sort by:

Does something directly stimulating pigmentation count?

That's a little vague, but probably yes. Is there something about the market description that makes this ambiguous for whatever you mean by "directly stimulating pigmentation"?

@zQ4Z82W I guess it's not implied in the description at all but I wanted to check if the intervention has to address some kind of aging related dysfunction.

By "directly stimulating pigmentation" I had in mind something that changes the "program" that your hair cells run to make them produce much more of your natural pigments or even different pigments, e.g. with CRISPR.

Yes that would count, that's actually the kind of thing I had in mind. Doesn't need to address aging as long as it causes repigmentation (directly or indirectly).