Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court in the consolidated cases of Learning Solutions, Inc v Trump and Trump v VOS Selections, concerning the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Oral arguments for these cases are scheduled for November 5, 2025.

• Fully Constitutional: This outcome will resolve "Yes" if the Supreme Court upholds the President's authority to impose the challenged tariffs under IEEPA in their entirety. The official ruling will be accessible on the Supreme Court's website at https://www.supremecourt.gov/.

• Partially Unconstitutional: This outcome will resolve "Yes" if the Supreme Court upholds some aspects of the IEEPA tariffs but finds other parts unconstitutional or exceeding presidential authority. This could involve specific tariffs, the justification for the declared national emergency, or the extent of delegated power. The specific details of the ruling's scope will determine this resolution. The official ruling will be accessible on the Supreme Court's website at https://www.supremecourt.gov/.

• Fully Unconstitutional: This outcome will resolve "Yes" if the Supreme Court rules that the President does not have the authority under IEEPA to impose the tariffs in question, thereby affirming lower court decisions that found these tariffs unlawful. The official ruling will be accessible on the Supreme Court's website at https://www.supremecourt.gov/.

Background

During his presidency, Donald Trump implemented various tariffs, notably invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose duties, citing national emergencies such as chronic trade deficits and drug trafficking. These IEEPA-based tariffs are distinct from those imposed under Section 232 (e.g., steel and aluminum) or Section 301.

Several federal courts, including the U.S. Court of International Trade and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, have ruled that these IEEPA tariffs exceeded presidential authority and were unlawful. Despite these rulings, the tariffs have remained in effect pending appeal. The Supreme Court granted certiorari and consolidated two key cases, Learning Solutions, Inc v Trump and Trump v VOS Selections, to review the legality and constitutionality of these tariffs.

Considerations

The Supreme Court's decision is anticipated to have significant implications for the separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches concerning trade policy. Should the Court rule against the tariffs, in whole or in part, it could potentially necessitate the refunding of billions of dollars in duties already collected from importers, though the exact process for such refunds remains uncertain. The nuanced nature of a "partially unconstitutional" ruling could lead to complex interpretations regarding which specific tariffs or applications of IEEPA are deemed unlawful.