Supreme Court vs Trump Tariffs: Constitutional? | Will the outcome be good for markets?
3
1kṀ120
Dec 30
29%
Tariffs ruled unconstitutional + SPX up
16%
Tariffs ruled unconstitutional + SPX down
21%
Tariffs ruled constitutional + SPX up
17%
Tariffs ruled constitutional + SPX down
17%
Other

This market resolves based on (1) the Supreme Court’s ruling on the pending tariff case and (2) the direction of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the relevant trading day.

Determining the ruling outcome

  • If the Court invalidates or strikes down the tariff authority → unconstitutional

  • If the Court upholds the tariff authority → constitutional

  • If the ruling is mixed, unclear, or fundamentally ambiguous → resolves to Other

Determining the SPX market direction

  • If ruling is released during market hours, compare that day's close to the previous day's close

  • If ruling is released during after hours, compare the next day's close to the previous day's close

  • If ruling is released on a weekend or U.S. market holiday, compare Monday's close vs Friday's close (or next trading day vs last trading day)

Zero-move rule

  • If the S&P500 closes exactly unchanged, market resolves to "other"

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