This market resolves based on (1) the Supreme Court’s ruling on the pending tariff case and (2) the direction of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the relevant trading day.
Determining the ruling outcome
If the Court invalidates or strikes down the tariff authority → unconstitutional
If the Court upholds the tariff authority → constitutional
If the ruling is mixed, unclear, or fundamentally ambiguous → resolves to Other
Determining the SPX market direction
If ruling is released during market hours, compare that day's close to the previous day's close
If ruling is released during after hours, compare the next day's close to the previous day's close
If ruling is released on a weekend or U.S. market holiday, compare Monday's close vs Friday's close (or next trading day vs last trading day)
Zero-move rule
If the S&P500 closes exactly unchanged, market resolves to "other"
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Court rules that tariffs are not allowed but suggests they can be restructured (e.g., as "license fees"), the first part will resolve to "ruled unconstitutional" based on the initial ruling that tariffs are not allowed.
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how will this market resolve if the court rules that tariffs as created are technically not allowed but they can be "rejiggered" as license fees? It was brought up during the oral arguments.
@Cactus If the court rules that tariffs are not allowed then the first part will resolve to "ruled unconstitutional".
I'd guess the impact on markets will be short lived or non-existent if the expectation is that a workaround will be used to uphold the tariffs. I wouldn't bet on that tho, I have at least some faith that if the supreme court have it in them to rule honestly here, then they would rule honestly and reject any attempts to sidestep the ruling. Who knows though..