Will the SCOTUS expect the US government to refund the tariffs?
16
100Ṁ493
Feb 1
14%
No, because SCOTUS rules them to be constitutional
46%
No, even though SCOTUS ruled them to be unconstitutional
23%
Partially
16%
Yes, entirely or as much as possible

Based on SCOTUS' official ruling in the Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. case.

In case of ambiguity, I will follow the consensus interpretation of authoritative newspapers (NY Times, Bloomberg News, etc.) or resolve N/A if there is not one.

Market context
US Politics
Trump
Politics
Trump's Second Term
Tariff
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
23% chance
When will SCOTUS release its Trump tariff case opinion?
Supreme Court vs Trump Tariffs: Constitutional? | Will the outcome be good for markets?
[ACX 2026] How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
Will SCOTUS strike down Trump tariffs? [PredictIt]
89% chance
How will the SCOTUS rules on Trump's tariff policy
Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?
43% chance
Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?
31% chance
Supreme Court rules Trump tariffs lawful?
24% chance
Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?
18% chance
Sort by:

this leaves out "no, and scotus didn't rule on their constitutionality."

@ZaneMiller I'll extend until they do.

@vee if they don't reach the question in this case, and don't hear another such case until trump leaves, then they'd never reach it

@ZaneMiller then N/A

bought Ṁ10 YES

Related market regarding the constitutionality instead of the consequences: https://manifold.markets/Mad2live/how-will-the-scotus-rules-on-trumps

People are also trading

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
23% chance
When will SCOTUS release its Trump tariff case opinion?
Supreme Court vs Trump Tariffs: Constitutional? | Will the outcome be good for markets?
[ACX 2026] How will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
Will SCOTUS strike down Trump tariffs? [PredictIt]
+39% 1d89% chance
How will the SCOTUS rules on Trump's tariff policy
Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?
43% chance
Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?
31% chance
Supreme Court rules Trump tariffs lawful?
24% chance
Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?
18% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy