MANIFOLD
Will the SCOTUS expect the US government to refund the tariffs?
23
Ṁ100Ṁ981
resolved Mar 5
50%33%
Partially
50%30%
Yes, entirely or as much as possible
0.3%
No, because SCOTUS rules them to be constitutional
37%
No, even though SCOTUS ruled them to be unconstitutional

Based on SCOTUS' official ruling in the Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. case.

In case of ambiguity, I will follow the consensus interpretation of authoritative newspapers (NY Times, Bloomberg News, etc.) or resolve N/A if there is not one.

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The majority opinion does not mention the question as far as I can tell, which is commonly understood (and by Kavanaugh) as implying they should be refunded. So I'm inclined to resolve either "Yes" or "Partially". I initially meant the latter as "they should be partially refunded", but technically it can also mean "the court partially expects them to".

What do you think?

this leaves out "no, and scotus didn't rule on their constitutionality."

@ZaneMiller I'll extend until they do.

@vee if they don't reach the question in this case, and don't hear another such case until trump leaves, then they'd never reach it

@ZaneMiller then N/A

bought Ṁ10 YES

Related market regarding the constitutionality instead of the consequences: https://manifold.markets/Mad2live/how-will-the-scotus-rules-on-trumps

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