On Aug 29, 2025, the Federal Circuit held most of the emergency-powers tariffs unlawful under IEEPA, staying the mandate until Oct 14, 2025 pending a likely SCOTUS appeal.

By June 30, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court hold that the President had statutory authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the 2025 “reciprocal” and “trafficking” tariffs challenged in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump?

Resolves YES if SCOTUS issues a merits decision with 5+ justices concluding the challenged tariffs were lawful (e.g., IEEPA authorizes tariffs of this sort) or otherwise upholding their legality.

Resolves NO if SCOTUS denies cert, dismisses, vacates/remands without affirming legality, or decides on the merits that the tariffs are unlawful or unauthorized. If it selectively rules some of the tariffs are unlawful but others are not, still resolves NO. If the case has not been ruled on by June 30th, resolves NO.