Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a final ruling in favor of President Donald Trump in the case of Trump v. Wilcox by December 31, 2027. A ruling in favor of Trump would affirm his authority to remove National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) member Gwynne Wilcox without cause. The market will resolve to "No" if the Supreme Court rules against Trump, denying him this authority, or if no ruling is issued by the specified date. The primary source for resolution will be the official Supreme Court docket and opinion, accessible at Supreme Court Docket.

Background

In January 2025, President Trump dismissed Gwynne Wilcox, a Democratic appointee to the NLRB, before the completion of her term. Wilcox challenged her removal, citing statutory protections that limit the president's ability to remove NLRB members without cause. The case has progressed through various courts, with differing opinions on the extent of presidential authority over independent agencies. The Supreme Court's decision in this case could have significant implications for the autonomy of federal agencies and the scope of executive power.

Considerations

Traders should monitor the Supreme Court's docket and official communications for updates on the case's status. The Court's decision may set a precedent affecting the balance of power between the executive branch and independent federal agencies. Given the complexity and potential impact of the case, resolution may be subject to delays or procedural developments.