Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2027, the Supreme Court of the United States issues a ruling affirming the International Court of Trade ruling that broad tariffs imposed under IEEPA by the executive branch are illegal. The ruling must explicitly state that such tariffs exceed the authority granted to the executive branch under existing laws. Verification will be based on official Supreme Court opinions published on its website.

While the ruling has technically not been appealed yet, an appeal seems highly likely. Nevertheless, edge cases are stated as follows: If the ICT ruling is not appealed to an appeals court by the deadline, this question will resolve YES. If the ICT ruling is appealed and upheld but not appealed to the Supreme Court by the government or not granted cert, this question will resolve YES. If the ICT ruling is appealed to an appeals court and overturned, but not granted cert or appealed to the Supreme Court, this question will resolve NO.

In the instance of a ruling that upholds the tariffs in part but not in whole, I will decide based on the general consensus of whether the ruling was largely favorable to the Trump administration or the plaintiffs. In the instance that the Court remands the decision to a lower court without issuing a firm ruling due to technical reasons, the question will remain open until a resolution is reached. All other unforeseen edge cases will be handled according to my discretion. As this is somewhat subjective, I will not bet on this market.