MANIFOLD
When will SCOTUS release its Trump tariff case opinion?
22
Ṁ1kṀ18k
Feb 1
0.1%
On or before December 1, 2025
0.1%
December 2, 2025 - December 15, 2025
0.1%
December 16, 2025 - December 31, 2025
0.1%
January 1, 2026 - January 15, 2026
0.4%
January 16, 2026 - January 31, 2026
99%
After January 31, 2026
0.1%
Other

Learning Resources v. Trump - Opinion Release Timeline

The Supreme Court held expedited oral arguments on November 5, 2025 in the consolidated cases of Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections.

The case will determine whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorizes the second Trump administration to implement various tariffs by executive order, and if the IEEPA does authorize the tariffs, whether the IEEPA is an unconstitutional delegation of legislative power to the executive branch.

In most cases, it typically takes 14-16 weeks after oral arguments for the Supreme Court to issue an opinion, though the timeline can be as short as 5 weeks in emergency cases or may extend into the next term. Given the expedited nature of this case and its national importance, an earlier decision is possible.

Resolution: This market resolves YES if the Supreme Court issues its opinion in Learning Resources v. Trump within the timeframes set forth above. Check the Supreme Court's official website at https://www.supremecourt.gov/ for opinion announcements.

  • Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date will be moved to February 1st (instead of November 6, 2026), assuming no additional answer options are added.

  • Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve on February 1st instead of the original close date of November 6, 2026.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

@JimD this question can probably resolve on Feb 1 instead of Nov 6, right?

@Hakari Yes. Assuming no one adds other answers.

sold Ṁ4 YES

@JimD there aren't any other valid answers to add. "After January 31st" covers all possible options

@Fion you’re right. This will resolve on February 1

What is “other” for? @creator

@bens That’s great question. It’s a holdover from when I first created the question. Probably isn’t needed, but I’m reluctant to remove it. Thoughts?

@JimD Just noticed that people have traded in other, so I will not alter it.

bought Ṁ5 YES

Would love to see more traders on this question!

@bens me, too. It’s been a dud so far.

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