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MANIFOLD
Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year before 2030?
6
Ṁ200Ṁ151
2029
67%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "YES" if at least one race in the Abbott World Marathon Majors series (Tokyo, Boston, London, Berlin, Chicago, New York City, Sydney) is won in a time under 2 hours (sub-2:00:00) during each individual calendar year from 2026 through 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to "NO".

Resolution will be based on the official race results published on the respective websites of each marathon major.

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reposted

I suspect the super shoes are causing a massive recalibration of expectations. Sub-2 will become ‘normal’ before too long. Not a great development IMO but here we are.