How low will the Marathon World Record go before the end of 2026?
11
Ṁ1kṀ1.5kDec 31
65%
Below 1:59:30
58%
Below 1:59:20
27%
Below 1:59:10
16%
Below 1:59:00
12%
Below 1:58:30
10%
Below 1:58:00
9%
Below 1:57:30
7%
Below 1:57:00
The performance must meet the criteria to be ratified as a world record by World Athletics. Ratification can happen after the end of 2026 as long as the race itself was held before the end of 2026.
This is a cumulative probability market, meaning all applicable answers will resolve YES, so e.g. if the WR stands at 1:59:15, both "Below 1:59:30" and "Below 1:59:20" will resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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