MANIFOLD
Will I run a marathon in 2026?
12
Ṁ1kṀ1.4k
Dec 31
74%
chance

I have a goal this year to run a marathon. I am male, late 20s, 6’4”/193cm and 210 lb/95 kg. I have been a casual runner for several years and have completed several half-marathons, most recently in 2022, but have never run further than the half marathon distance. My 5k PR is 21:13; my HM PR is 1:38:40.

My plan is to roughly follow the Hal Higdon Novice 1 marathon training plan and run an event in late April.

To resolve YES, I must complete an activity of marathon distance (26.2 miles/42.2 km) or longer by the end of 2026. I should run for the majority of the activity; walking 26.2 miles would not count. Resolves NO if I fail to do so by the end of the year.

I will only buy YES shares in this market.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Progress update: first three weeks of training have passed successfully.

Week 1: total 16 miles, long run 6 miles

Week 2: total 19 miles, long run 7.5 miles

Week 3: total 15 miles, long run 5 miles

Goal for next week is ~20 mi total with a 9 mile long run

bought Ṁ50 YES

You are physically capable so it only comes down to whether you train a bit and then whether you get injured. You can do this.

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