Sub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029

Question

Any of the world marathon majors won under 2:00:00 resolves YES.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" for each individual race option if the official winning time for that specific event is strictly less than 2:00:00. Official results will be determined by the race organizers' final, ratified results. If a race is cancelled, not held, or if no participant achieves a sub-2:00:00 time, that specific option resolves "NO".

Sources for official results will be the respective websites of the World Marathon Majors:

Tokyo Marathon

Boston Marathon

London Marathon

Berlin Marathon

Chicago Marathon

New York City Marathon

Sydney Marathon

@/MachiNi/sub-159-marathon-before-la-olympics

@/MachiNi/will-at-least-one-world-marathon-ma

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Berlin 2026, followed by Chicago 2027 and Berlin 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of May 14, 2026).