Will a female runner run a mile in under 4 minutes by the end of 2030?
6
1kṀ1111
2031
13%
Yes, in an official race
50%
Yes, but only in a controlled experiment
38%
No

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-02-female-runner-minute-mile-barrier.html

A recent study claimed that with optimal pacing, Faith Kipyegon could have broken 4 minutes. (Her actual time was 4 minutes, 7.64 seconds.)

Some races have pacers and wavelights to help runners break world records. That still counts as an official race.

"A controlled experiment" is meant to include conditions like what Eliud Kipchoge used to run a marathon in under two hours, which did not qualify as an official record.

  • Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attempt Details:

    • The upcoming attempt scheduled for June 26 is a carefully controlled experiment.

    • This attempt is not an official race and should be considered as such when resolving the market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/sports/kipyegon-kenya-female-runner-4-minute-mile.html

Attempt scheduled for June 26!

Note that this is a carefully controlled experiment, not an actual race.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules