Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
57
1kṀ78242026
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The release of GPT-4 in recent months have generated lots of enthusiasm for AI research, as well as fears of impending AI doom. But how sustainable is it really, and is it just simply another hype cycle that will soon fizzle out?
Will settle "Yes" if an AI Winter is confirmed to have occurred before January 1st, 2026, defined by a substantial decrease in both enthusiasm/interest for AI, followed by a subsequent decrease in funding for AI research. Else it will resolve as "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
35% chance
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
31% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
5% chance
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
36% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
33% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
63% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
39% chance