Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
closes 2030

Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
ScottAlexander avatarScott Alexander
35% chance
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
MatthewBarnett avatarMatthew Barnett
29% chance
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Austin avatarAustin
31% chance
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
SG avatarS G
49% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
dreev avatarDaniel Reeves
52% chance
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Nostradamnedus avatarNostradamnedus
15% chance
Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
26% chance
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
NathanpmYoung avatarNathan Young
52% chance
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
JoeBrenton avatarJoe Brenton
9% chance
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
BionicD0LPH1N avatarBionic
81% chance
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
22% chance
Will I use an x.ai product during 2023?
jacksonpolack avatarjackson polack
22% chance
Will a NZ parliamentary party release an artificial intelligence policy prior to the 2023 election?
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
getby avatarI get down
12% chance
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
71% chance
49. Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?
ACXBot avatarACX BotBot
14% chance
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
JacobPfau avatarJacob Pfau
25% chance
Sort by:
MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicts YES
L avatar
Lbought Ṁ10 of NO

fuckin lol

tailcalled avatar

I give it like 1% probability but I'm not gonna bet for resolution objectiveness reasons.

8 replies
tailcalled avatar

Actually wait, a drawdown would not be 50% drop relative to now, but rather 50% drop relative to the peak, right? So maybe it could actually happen.

erwald avatar
Erichpredicts NO

@tailcalled Yeah that's right, it'd be a 50% drop relative to any previous peak.

erwald avatar
Erichpredicts NO

@tailcalled Also would be great if you knew a good source for "annual global AI investment" because I couldn't really find one lol. I think Crunchbase might have ~that data, but you need to pay for it.

tailcalled avatar

@erwald If I google "crunchbase AI investment", then I can see that people regularly post diagrams from crunchbase on AI investment, so I think we can just rely on that for resolution. Otherwise I guess we'll have to figure something out at that time. I can probably afford to pay if all else fails.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polacksold Ṁ100 of NO

AI investment could easily drop by 50% in a big financial crisis or us v chin war or something

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@jacksonpolack No that would increase it because we would need it for military operations as well. In the words of Vladimir Putin "Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world."

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack

Investment isn't a sense of "how much we need X", it's literally when eg a VC gets 10% of a company in exchange for $200M. The crunch to the economy and trade from a war would cause investment in the latter sense to dry up. The military would up spending on AI, but that'd be dwarfed by less investment in future tech.

ShadowyZephyr avatar

@jacksonpolack Perhaps if it were literally world war III. I don't think that will likely happen by 2030 though, I think tensions will increase, which WOULD increase investment in AI.

But the military gets a lot of money, even then, I'm not sure it would be dwarfed by the lower investment in future tech like you claim.