Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
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2030
30%
chance

Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.

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I feel like the resolution condition is less interesting than the question I would want answered. I could see all research fronts stalling out, but annual global AI investment still increasing purely on applications.

predicts YES

fuckin lol

I give it like 1% probability but I'm not gonna bet for resolution objectiveness reasons.

Actually wait, a drawdown would not be 50% drop relative to now, but rather 50% drop relative to the peak, right? So maybe it could actually happen.

predicts NO

@tailcalled Yeah that's right, it'd be a 50% drop relative to any previous peak.

predicts NO

@tailcalled Also would be great if you knew a good source for "annual global AI investment" because I couldn't really find one lol. I think Crunchbase might have ~that data, but you need to pay for it.

@erwald If I google "crunchbase AI investment", then I can see that people regularly post diagrams from crunchbase on AI investment, so I think we can just rely on that for resolution. Otherwise I guess we'll have to figure something out at that time. I can probably afford to pay if all else fails.

AI investment could easily drop by 50% in a big financial crisis or us v chin war or something

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack No that would increase it because we would need it for military operations as well. In the words of Vladimir Putin "Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world."

Investment isn't a sense of "how much we need X", it's literally when eg a VC gets 10% of a company in exchange for $200M. The crunch to the economy and trade from a war would cause investment in the latter sense to dry up. The military would up spending on AI, but that'd be dwarfed by less investment in future tech.

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack Perhaps if it were literally world war III. I don't think that will likely happen by 2030 though, I think tensions will increase, which WOULD increase investment in AI.

But the military gets a lot of money, even then, I'm not sure it would be dwarfed by the lower investment in future tech like you claim.