If the NBER declares a recession in 2023 or 2024, will they do that after the recession has ended?
3
188
แน39แน90
2025
60%
chance
1D
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1M
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In 2001, people only realized that there was a recession after it has ended.
This market will resolve to YES if the day the NBER declares a recession in 2023 or 2024 is later declared NOT to be in a recession by the NBER itself.
Say that in Oct 15th 2023 the NBER declares a recession has started in the U.S. in June 1st 2023. If they later say the recession has ended in Sep 30th 2023, this market would resolve to YES.
If there are multiple recessions, I'll only consider the first one.
If by June 2025 at market end there wasn't a recession declares by the NBER, this market resolves to N/A.
I may bet on this market.
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